Home BTC/ETH Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

by


Follow Nikolaus On X Here

Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.

Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.

On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.

“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”

It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.

A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.

Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



Source link

Related Articles

xxxanti beeztube.mobi hot sexy mp4 menyoujan hentaitgp.net jason voorhees hentai indian soft core chupatube.net youjzz ez2 may 8 2023 pinoycinema.org ahensya ng pamahalaan pakistani chut ki chudai pimpmovs.com www xvedio dost ke papa zztube.mobi 300mbfilms.in صور مص الزب arabporna.net نهر العطش لمن تشعر بالحرمان movierulz plz.in bustyporntube.info how to make rangoli video 穂高ゆうき simozo.net 四十路五十路 ロシアav javvideos.net 君島みお 無修正 افلام سكس في المطبخ annarivas.net فيلم سكس قديم rashmi hot videos porncorn.info audiosexstories b grade latest nesaporn.pro high school girls sex videos real life cam eroebony.info painfull porn exbii adult pics teacherporntrends.com nepali school sex