When we are drafting this report, the price of Bitcoin is hovering close to US$95K. On November 22, 2024, it almost reached the significant and often elusive US$100K mark. On that date, Bitcoin registered an all-time high by crossing the mark of US$99,655. The recent steep surge in Bitcoin prices—especially after Donald Trump’s victory—has left many curious about how long this glorious bull run for Bitcoin will continue. Let us start with that question: How far are we into the current bull market for crypto?
How Far Are We Into the Current Bull Market for Crypto?
According to investment analysts, the bull market for crypto is far from over. According to Galaxy Research and the reportage on their findings, Bitcoin is expected to punch through the US$100K mark in the near term. The reasons are multiple.
Expectations are ripe that institutional and corporate adoption of crypto will rise. The research also pointed to the possibility of Bitcoin nation-state reserves aiding the asset’s growth.
At the end of July this year, the Senator for Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, officially introduced the Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act in the US Senate.
In her remarks, etching out the pivotal role Bitcoin could play in shaping the country’s economy, Lummis said:
“Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world, and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier.“
On October 23, 2024, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed House Bill 2481—dubbed the “Bitcoin Rights” bill by Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund—with a decisive 176–26 bipartisan vote.
The Galaxy research report also anticipates the new US administration to be more inclined – predictably- towards a regime with many positive crypto regulations. According to the analyst writing the report, the bull run of crypto may continue for the next couple of years.
He believed the bitcoin setup over the next two years appeared “unique and bullish.”
However, according to Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy, the journey for Bitcoin might not be super smooth. He believed:
“There could even be some twilight regulatory or law enforcement actions from the outgoing Biden administration that jitter markets.”
While analysts keep weighing factors that would influence the Bitcoin trajectory, there is one more technical aspect that we could look at to understand how far we’re into the bull market. And that aspect relates to the phenomenon of Bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin Halving and the Period After It
In short, Bitcoin halving refers to an event that takes place every four years. The event reduces block rewards by 50% in the expectation that it will lower supply, increase scarcity, and eventually lead to an uptick in the asset’s price. The last halving event happened on April 19, 2024. It has been more than seven months since then, yet the price of Bitcoin continues to grow. However, there is a more specific way to calculate when Bitcoin will reach its peak since it has had its last halving.
Reports suggest that in the past three halvings that happened in 2012, 2016, and 2020, there was an average price increase of 16% over the sixty days that followed the halving. However, there were exceptions on an individual level. For instance, in 2016, the halving resulted in a decrease of 6% over the following 60 days, although it then rallied strongly throughout 2017.
The analysis was done by 10X Research, and according to Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10X, the halving was “associated with price increases due to reduced supply,” but investors would have to wait for a price peak, which typically came 500 days after a halving.
If we are to take these 500 days into account, which is close to one year, four months, and more, the price peak of Bitcoin after the latest halving should come any time during August 2025.
While Bitcoin might be expected to peak during August 2025, analysts are also curious about the peaking of Altcoins.
How Many Days Post Bitcoin-Halving Do Altcoins Peak?
However, the crypto world has many other components besides Bitcoin. There is a vast empire of altcoins. As we know, altcoins, or alternative coins, refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the most representative asset in the crypto kingdom. It is rather obvious that any persistent surge in its prices would have a ripple effect on other cryptocurrencies, such as altcoins. Ethereum’s ascent from around $200 to an all-time high of over $3,500 within 12 months of the Bitcoin halving on May 11, 2020, demonstrated the dramatic shifts that can occur.
Apart from a rise in prices, there are other changes. For instance, the altcoin landscape has become more adaptive and innovative. The surge packs developers with new hope and enthusiasm to expedite the rollout of new features or improvements, striving to secure their coin’s relevance in a market recalibrating itself after Bitcoin’s big move.
Analysts also believe that the redistribution of capital that the market goes through after any Bitcoin halving changes it in multiple ways, including a shift in the levels of liquidity to trading volumes to the pace with which new altcoin projects appear in the scene.
Researchers have often observed, from numbers available from the Bitcoin Dominance Index, that the relative share of Bitcoin goes down post-halving despite its prices going up. It indicates a rise in other coins’ prices – a strengthening of the altcoin landscape.
The obvious question that arises is this: are we in a situation now where altcoins are also at their peak after the last Bitcoin halving?
Where are we concerning Altseason?
Analysts believe that we are already into the Altseason. According to one analysis, the crypto space qualifies as being in the Altseason because 75% of the top 50 coins outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
If we delve deeper, the implications of an Altseason are greater than they appear. It is not merely a time when the altcoins perform relatively better. Experts have noticed that multiple distinct market characteristics emerge during an Altseason.
One is an increased altcoin dominance. For instance, during the Altseason in May 2021, the combined market cap of the top 100 altcoins reached around 130% of Bitcoin’s. Another thing that happens is that altcoin prices grow at a significantly higher rate than their usual pace. Large-cap altcoin achieved 174% returns versus BTC’s 2% during the Altcoin Season from February to May 2021.
Finally, an Altseason implies an all-pervasive bullish sentiment in the market. It comes from the optimism that altcoins will deliver good returns. It leads to buying pressure and price momentum.
With Bitcoin halving, leading to a rise in Bitcoin and Altcoins, several other aspects have their bearings upon a bull run in the crypto world. We will discuss the phenomenon of token emissions.
The Emissions Schedule and Price Dynamics
Token emission refers to the rate at which new tokens are created or distributed in the market. With the advent of a bull market, investors have become increasingly curious about the tokenomics of the coin they intend to invest in. It is always helpful to gauge the future of a token if its token emissions schedule is known. Bitcoin, for instance, has a limit of 21 million.
With the number of new bitcoins issued per block decreasing by half approximately every four years, the final bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140. The number of new bitcoins minted per block was 50 when Bitcoin was first established and has since decreased to 6.25 as of May 2020 and to 3.125 in 2024. Knowing these numbers plays a significant role in assessing the value and stability of a crypto network.
But is that all? Can the value and future of a coin be determined so easily? Are predictions simply about counting the days since a specific event or calculating how many coins remain to be distributed? Just as the traditional finance market is influenced by events around it, the crypto market also undergoes shifts and changes driven by external factors. Beyond the fundamental properties of an asset, there are also the dynamics of its economy to consider.
Will the Bull Market Be Extended Due to Recent Events?
While the current crypto bull market was triggered by Bitcoin halving, there are reasons to call this year’s bull run a standout phenomenon. This time, the demand and supply dynamics of Bitcoin are being shaped by a unique sequence of events.
Notably, this was the year when several Bitcoin ETFs were launched. Major holders like Grayscale sold off their Bitcoin assets in response to competition from lower-fee ETFs. In contrast, holders like MicroStrategy and various new ETFs began accumulating vast amounts of bitcoin, potentially triggering a supply crunch. Bitcoin also gained increased recognition as a tool to hedge against inflation.
Countries like El Salvador are adopting Bitcoin. All of these factors—combined with Donald Trump’s win—which has garnered significant traction in the crypto world due to his crypto-positive policies—have led to a scenario where the ongoing bull market could persist longer than usual.
What major events are upcoming that may play a role?
On May 22, The House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT 21) as a major step towards productive regulation of the crypto industry. If turned into a law, FIT 21 would more clearly define crypto asset regulatory boundaries for the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC“), providing statutory definitions for “restricted digital assets” and “digital commodities.”
It would, for the first time, give the CFTC plenary jurisdiction over spot trading in digital commodities. It would also introduce a “certification” process, through which a blockchain could be shown to be “decentralized,” permitting the assets on such a blockchain to be regulated as digital commodities rather than securities.
On December 30, 2024, the most important piece of crypto regulation in Europe, Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA), will be enforced. It would be the first European-level piece of legislation to introduce a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto-assets, covering issues from issuance of crypto-assets through the provision of services in crypto-assets to preventing market abuse in crypto-asset markets.
According to a report by Deutsche Bank Research that was published in the aftermath of the launching of Bitcoin ETFs, analysts anticipated the crypto world to move towards greater institutionalization as traditional financial players entered the market. By expanding regulated crypto access, upcoming spot ETF approvals could drive further mainstream adoption – the analysts believed. The upcoming comprehensive regulatory frameworks, according to the analysts, could help crypto mature into a more established class.
However, amidst all this enthusiasm, one must be mindful of the fact that the crypto world has often surprised us with untoward incidents that had a huge impact on destabilizing the trends and jumbling up predictions. For instance, there have been cases like Mt. Gox or FTX, where highly renowned and trustworthy crypto exchanges have suddenly become bankrupt.
Mt. Gox was once the biggest Bitcoin exchange, handling most of the world’s Bitcoin trades. But in 2014, it suddenly stopped letting users withdraw their funds, claiming there was “suspicious activity.” Not long after, it was revealed that 850,000 Bitcoins were missing. At the time, the missing Bitcoin was worth hundreds of millions. Mt. Gox couldn’t recover and ended up filing for bankruptcy. The court ordered the remaining assets to be sold to repay creditors.
As of December 2024, the trustee still holds about 12,006 BTC. Starting in May, 129,680 BTC has already been moved. Creditors were originally supposed to get their payouts by October 2024, but the deadline’s now been pushed to October 2025 to allow more time.
Some payouts did begin earlier, around mid-2024. Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash were sent to exchanges to help with the process. Even with that progress, there’s still a big chunk left—roughly 94,771 BTC, worth $5.4 billion—that hasn’t been distributed yet.
Naturally, this has sparked worries about how such a big stash could shake up the market. Earlier this year, for instance, Bitcoin’s price took a 1.1% hit, dropping to $68,159. Many pointed to fears of Mt. Gox payouts flooding the market as the cause.
The repayments aren’t made yet, and with this much Bitcoin still in play, it’s clear Mt. Gox will keep the crypto world on edge for a while longer.
FTX used to be one of the biggest crypto exchanges. Then, in November 2022, it collapsed. The whole crypto market felt the impact. Now they’re saying creditors will start getting paid in March 2025. However, the payouts would be based on prices from late 2022. Back then, Bitcoin was $20,000, and Ethereum was $1,200.
With today’s prices much higher—Bitcoin at $97,000 and Ethereum at $3,300—some creditors might cash out and reinvest, which could create selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Since FTX is repaying in cash, the actual impact will depend on how creditors use their payouts. If they reinvest heavily in Bitcoin, it could influence prices. The first distributions are expected to begin 60 days after court approval, likely in early 2025, and market watchers are keeping a close eye on what happens.
Therefore, while it is encouraging for the digital assets world to have something as an exceptionally persistent bull run, we must also not lose focus on the systems that run it. The surge in prices and lucrative investment opportunities must not become a tool to exploit investors in the hands of a few malicious actors. With legislation, regulations, and institutional adoption growing around the crypto ecosystem, one could expect a fair system to be in action this time.
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