- Next Celestia (TIA) unlock is set to nearly double the circulation.
- Token unlocks of such magnitude tend to have mixed reactions.
- Two on-chain signals imply an unfavorable trend for the altcoin.
Celestia, the first-ever modular blockchain that enables its users to launch separate blockchain with the frontrunning Ethereum roll-up frameworks, is heading towards one of the biggest token unlocks in crypto’s history, worth $888.5 million.
Pros & Cons of Celestia’s $940M Unlock
Market watchers are focusing on the possible impact of Celestia’s (TIA) cliff token unlock, which will happen on October 30, 2024, at 2 PM UTC. Following this unlocking event, Celestia’s available circulation will expand by 79.6%, pouring 175.59M TIA tokens onto the open markets.
Aside from the cliff unlock, which means many tokens are being released simultaneously, Celestia is set to execute a linear unlock of 5.41 million TIA tokens worth approximately $27.36 million. There will be $940 million worth of Celestia in the open, which could play out in multiple ways.
From one perspective, such massive crypto unlocks materialize in short-term selling pressure, which could imply further price drops. On the other hand, having the majority of tokens in circulation minimizes the chances of price manipulation by the largest entities.
Can Celestia’s Price Reclaim Double Digits?
Trading below $10 since early June, the innovative modular data availability (DA) blockchain bounced back by 142% from the all-time low of $2.08, witnessed on October 31, 2023. However, Celestia’s price was ten times higher than this a couple of months later, on February 10, 2024. Scoring an all-time high of $20.85, the altcoin backtracked 75.8% since the milestone.
Crypto analysts are exclamating the $4.80 support level, which was successfully retested on October 10, 2024. This time, Celestia’s technical implications suggest that large altcoin investors continue reducing their positions, evident in the -0.18 Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) index.
Aside from the negative large money netflows, the modular chain’s native token demonstrates a highly overbought position in the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (StochRSI), hovering between 95 and 91, according to TradingView’s four-hour crypto price charts.
As of press time, the #75-ranked altcoin is trading at $5.02, sliding down by 1.4% in 24 hours. Celestia is still well above a $1 billion market cap but has lost a staggering $258 million since the highest seven-day point on October 25, 2024. This signifies a 12.5% weekly drop, while most Derivatives traders tend to go short on TIA, as CoinGlass’s long versus short ratio points to 0.92.
On the Flipside
- According to the leveraged market data from CoinGlass, Celestia’s OI-weighted funding rate has been mostly negative since July 2024.
- While this could imply plunging demand for leveraged plays on TIA, today’s Derivatives volume registers a 25% hike to $630 million.
Why This Matters
Shifting supply dynamics usually mean a turning point for the cryptocurrency, while the market’s reception allows us to understand which projects crypto traders deem successful.
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