Hottest On Record
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, created by the EU, has announced that summer 2024 was the hottest on record globally and for Europe. Together with the end of 2023, 2024 displayed massive surface air temperature anomalies above the 1.5C threshold, much above all the years since 1940 on record.
Source: Copernicus
In more detail, it means that August 2024 was the warmest August globally (together with August 2023), with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 16.82°C, 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Average temperatures were above average over Europe, Eastern Antarctica, Texas, Mexico, Canada, Northeast Africa, Iran, China, Japan, and Australia.
When it comes to Europe specifically, the average temperature for European land for August 2024 was 1.57°C above the 1991-2020 average for August.
The only regions with below-average temperatures were Far-Eastern Russia and Alaska, the Eastern United States, parts of Southern South America, Pakistan, and the Sahel.
“This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record.
The temperature-related extreme events witnessed this summer will only become more intense, with more devastating consequences for people and the planet unless we take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Data Origin
These data were produced from the ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service’s ERA5 and ERA5-Land (surface soil moisture) datasets.
These are generated using a variety of land (weather stations), air (weather balloons), and space-based (satellites) monitoring tools, with the collaboration of many institutions, including :
- EU Member States.
- European Space Agency (ESA).
- European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
- EU Agencies and Mercator Océan.
For 2024 to NOT end up the hottest year on record, it would need to drop by at least 0.30°C for 2024, not to be warmer than 2023. As this has never happened in the entire ERA5 dataset, we can already quite confidently expect this year to be record-breaking.
You can read more about Copernicus and its discoveries from its extensive FAQ, for example:
- That the ERA5 dataset is a global atmospheric reanalysis dataset of hourly meteorological conditions going as far back as 1950.
- That before 2024 & 2023, the warmest years were in order 2016, 2020, followed by 2017, 2019, 2015, and 2018.
The most technically-minded reader can also check how the data were analyzed on the dedicated page.
Water & Ice
These record temperatures can have severe consequences on not just how warm it is, but also on water resources and ice coverage. Copernicus is also tracking these data.
Water
August 2024 was drier than average for most of continental Europe. This was especially true for the southern UK and Ireland, the Alps, the Balkans, northwest Russia, and eastern Fennoscandia. Large areas of the south and East of Europe experienced severe drought and wildfire.
It was also drier than average in Mexico and southern North America, regions of Russia, across China, and most of South America and Southern Africa, with wildfires in Canada, Siberia, and Brazil.
At the same time, climate disturbance also manifested in excess rain in other areas, leading to floods and damage. This included Europe, Iceland, the northern UK and Ireland, the northern seaboard of continental Europe, western Russia, and Türkiye.
Outside Europe, August 2024 was wetter than average over Eastern North America (partly related to Hurricane Debby), central Russia, eastern China, and Eastern Australia. The Indian subcontinent was hit by monsoon rains and Cyclone Asna. Heavy rainfall led to flooding in Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Japan was hit by Typhoon Shanshan.
Ice
The Arctic ice was 17% below average, ranking fourth lowest for August in the satellite record.
Similar much below-average concentrations of ice in the Indian Ocean sector were observed, partially compensated by much above-average concentrations in the Weddell Sea.
Overall, sea ice concentration anomalies in the Southern Ocean were dominated by Antarctic sea ice 7% below average, the second-lowest extent for August in the satellite data record, behind the -12% August value observed in 2023.
The Tonga Eruption
The overall trend toward warming climate is ongoing, and due to long-term causes. It is also possible that the sudden jump in temperature in 2023-2024 is linked to the 2022 massive volcanic eruption in Tonga.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explained how the eruption, one of the largest in decades, if not centuries, has sent a lot of water into the upper layer of the atmosphere.
This brings a new perspective on the effect of large volcanic eruptions on the climate, which has so far mostly focused on the sulphur injection in the stratosphere.
Water vapor rapidly affected the Earth’s stratosphere between 10 and 31 miles above the surface, causing an unexpectedly large loss of ozone and an unexpectedly rapid formation of aerosols.
Our measurements showed that stratospheric ozone concentrations decreased rapidly – by as much as 30% in air with the highest water vapor concentrations – in the immediate wake of the eruption”
Stephanie Evan – scientist from the Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones
Scientists have clarified the process by which water expelled in the upper atmosphere reacts with chlorohydric acid to break down the ozone molecules.
Source: NOAA
Normally, volcanic eruptions should cause aerosol in the air that reduces temperature. But when combined with the expulsion in high altitude of megatons of water, it could actually severely boost warming for up to 5 years. This is because water is also a strong greenhouse gas, besides CO2.
In 2023, this was assumed it could temporarily push the global temperature above the level of a 1.5C warming anomaly, and it seems so far that 2024 confirms this fear.
The underwater caldera shot 146 metric megatons of water into the stratosphere like a geyser, potentially contributing to atmospheric warming over the next 5 years.
The planet was already 50% likely to warm past 1.5°C in the next 5 years, and the presence of HTHH’s water vapor increased the odds of temporarily exceeding that threshold to 57%, according to the simulation.
Stuart Jenkins – Atmospheric Physics Clarendon Laboratory
Investing In Battling Climate Change
Climate change might be a severe threat to our planet and civilization, but it is also an opportunity to embrace new technologies.
Many companies are working hard to provide solutions that go beyond reducing emissions. This includes for example carbon capture (reversing past carbon emissions) or geoengineering.
You can invest in climate change-related companies through many brokers, and you can find here, on securities.io, our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.
If you are not interested in picking climate change companies, you can also look into ETFs like iShares Climate Conscious & Transition MSCI USA ETF (USCL), HSBC Nasdaq Global Climate Tech UCITS ETF (HNCT.L), or Xtrackers Emerging Markets Carbon Reduction and Climate Improvers ETF (EMCR) which will provide more diversified exposure to capitalize on the growing climate mitigation industry.
Or you can check out our article on the “Top 5 Carbon Capture Stocks To Invest In”.
Climate Change-Related Companies
1. LanzaTech Global, Inc.
LanzaTech focuses on turning carbon into useful products instead of greenhouse gas emissions. That carbon can come from industrial off-gas emissions, organic wastes, or direct electrolysis and capture technologies.
By using carbon this way, LanzaTech provides a new market for carbon capture besides carbon credits. It also makes possible the vision of a fully circular economy, where carbon emissions are immediately turned back into useful products. Another advantage is that by producing the same feedstocks as obtained from hydrocarbon, Lanzatech products do not need the final user to redesign their factories and assembly lines.
Source: LanzaTech
The company has operated commercial-scale plants since 2018, producing aviation fuel, purified ethanol, PET, polyethylene, and glycol. On average, this means that 2 tons of CO2 got removed for every ton of products made with LanzaTech’s Carbon Smart.
The process relies on bacteria turning waste into useful compounds, with LanzaTech, a leader in fermentation technology, as well as an in vitro prototyping platform and the world’s first anaerobic biofoundry.
This ability to create new bacteria strains also allows LanzaTech to retrofit existing plants into a new type of chemical production, depending on new needs or changes in market prices for these molecules.
Source: LanzaTech
The company’s business model is to license its technology (one-time off revenues) and then collect royalties and licensing fees on a regular basis. This makes it a very capital-light business model, letting the final industrial clients like Danone or BASF take on the capital expenditure for the plants. Over time, the large majority of the revenues and earnings will come from recurring revenues, giving predictability to the company’s cash flows.
The plants are profitable, with an average of $25M/year of gross cash margin per plant for a capex cost of $125M. As a result, LanzaTech’s first customer is now building its 4th plant.
Still, the company is far from profitable currently, registering a net loss of $63.3M in Q1 2023 for total revenues of $9.6M, up 23% from a year before. The company operates 5 plants, is building 4 more, of which 3 should start in 2023, and has up to 90+ other projects at various stages of development.
Overall, LanzaTech has just demonstrated the efficiency of its technology and is starting to expand and deploy its fermentation plants worldwide. This could lead to explosive growth, especially with brands worldwide getting interested in more green sourcing for their products.
Still, the need for financing might be a risk for the company, but it might also manage to get help from its industrial partners or raise more money thanks to its strong growth and pipeline of new projects.
2. OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL)
Opal Fuels is a US producer that produces and distributes RNG (Renewable Natural Gas/Biomethane) country-wide. The company established partnerships for biogas production with landfills and waste collection, as well as water department or energy companies.
Source: Opal
It then resells this biogas to a network of distributors or directly to large clients like Amazon, UPS, or the city of Denver for example. Each of these contracts is very long-term oriented, giving the company visibility on its operating cash flow.
The gas is used either for heating and industrial purposes or to power heavy-duty transportation (semi-trucks).
Source: Opal
The company is growing quickly, with the production capacity scheduled to almost double in 2024, thanks to many projects already under construction, and should reach a total production of 9.3 MMBtu. All these projects are already fully funded.
It also has a pipeline of 19 projects worth 7.9 MMBtu for later development, as well as 300+ fueling stations in the network.
Source: Opal
Opal Fuels can be a good pick for investors interested in biogas and looking for a larger and relatively safe company without having to bet on technologically less mature technologies like hydrogen or carbon capture.
