The global life expectancy is set to increase by 4.9 years in males and 4.2 years in females during the 2022 and 2050 period, according to findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021.
The study aims to quantify health loss across regions and over time. The latest round of GBD results covers over 607 billion estimates of 371 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories.
The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent research organization at the University of Washington (UW). IHME’s mission is to deliver relevant and timely scientifically valid evidence to the world to improve health policy and practice.
Published in May 2024 in The Lancet, the study forecasts that the largest increase in life expectancy will occur in countries where it is currently lower, leading to a convergence of increased life expectancy worldwide.
This trend is primarily the result of public health measures that, the study points out, prevented COVID-19, cardiovascular diseases, and various CMNNs or communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases and improved survival rates from these diseases.
According to the study, the disease burden is shifting to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cardiovascular diseases. This shift has also been seen in exposure to NCD-related risk elements, including high blood pressure, smoking, non-optimal diet, and obesity. The study indicates that this will have a sizable effect on the next generation’s disease burden.
While more people are anticipated to live longer, the burden of disease is shifting from CMNN diseases to non-communicable diseases and from years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLDs). As a result, more of these additional years will be spent in poor health.
In terms of life expectancy, it was at 73.6 years in 2022 and is forecasted to increase to 78.1 years of age in 2050. Meanwhile, the global healthy life expectancy or HALE, which is the average number of years one can live in good health, is projected to see a 2.6-year increase to hit 67.4 years by 2050.
Interestingly, the gap between the highest- and lowest-income regions is shrinking, with sub-Saharan Africa expected to see the biggest increases. However, health inequalities will remain, as per the study. With that, “the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen,” said Dr. Chris Murray, Director of IHME and Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at UW.
According to Dr. Murray, the biggest opportunity to accelerate reductions in the global disease burden is through policy interventions that aim to prevent and mitigate behavioral and metabolic risk factors.
Building upon the results from the GBD 2021 risk factors study, the 2022 report findings state that the total number of lost years due to poor health and early death, which is measured in DALYs or disability-adjusted life years, attributable to metabolic risk factors has jumped as much as 50% since 2000.
“There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure.”
– Dr. Murray
The study also shares many alternative scenarios to compare the potential health outcomes if public health interventions are successful in eliminating exposure to different key risk factor groups by 2050.
The study forecasts large differences in global DALY (disability-adjusted life years) burden between different alternative scenarios to see what can have the most impact on the overall life expectancy data and DALY forecasts, said the study’s lead author, Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, who leads the GBD Collaborating Unit at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
The forecasted effects are found to be strongest for the ‘Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks’ scenario. As per this, a 13.3% reduction in disease burden (number of DALYs) will be seen in 2050 compared with the most likely scenario. Safer environments, improved childhood nutrition, and vaccination are two other scenarios that researchers ran.
These two scenarios beyond the reference forecast demonstrate “the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the potential to accelerate progress through 2050,” said Amanda E. Smith, IHME’s Assistant Director of Forecasting.
A Deeper Look into Increasing Life Expectancy
So, the new study forecasts an increase in global and super-regional life expectancy between 2022 and 2050.
From policymakers to companies and the public at large, studies that reveal health drivers and future trends in disease burden are of great interest. After all, health is wealth. One can only enjoy the luxuriousness of life and the fruits of one”s labor if one has good health and ample time.
Having information about health drivers and disease burden trends allows people to plan for their health and the government to make policies and prioritize long-term health planning and investment.
In fact, there is a greater focus on human longevity, with science and technology working together to help humans live healthier and longer lives.
As we noted in our previous articles, researchers and scientists have introduced many innovative approaches to human longevity, including noncontroversial ones like Senolytics and Senostatics, Microbiome Optimization, and Photobiomodulation (PBM), as well as highly controversial ones like Young Blood Transfusion and Radical Gene Editing. Meanwhile, companies like Longeveron, Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Mesoblast, and Unity Biotechnology are actively working on providing access to potentially game-changing therapies to increase human longevity.
The latest study shows that life expectancy is actually projected to increase in the coming decades. However, this improvement is at a slower pace than in the three decades prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, which occurred at the beginning of 2020.
Between 1990 and 2019, global life expectancy increased by an average of 0·27 years, which is higher than the 0·16-year annual increase expected between 2022 and 2050. This life expectancy growth rate was far slower for the high-income superregion, north Africa and the Middle East, Southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania.
However, it is estimated that life expectancies from 2022 to 2023 either returned to or exceeded the 2019 levels. By 2050, the study forecasts the global life expectancy for females to be just above 80 and for males to be just above 75.
So, global life expectancy will continue to increase overall and for both males and females in all seven GBD super-regions.
According to the study’s data, the highest average ages in different regions are as follows: Armenia in Central Asia, 84.8; Slovenia, 87.4; and Estonia in Eastern Europe, 85.8.
In high-income regions, Singapore leads Asia Pacific with 89.7, Canada in North America at 85.8, and Chile in Southern Latin America at 85.5. In Western Europe, San Marino stands at 90, Peru in Andean Latin America at 84, Bermuda in the Caribbean at 88.3, Colombia in Central Latin America at 86.7, and Brazil in Tropical Latin America at 83.2.
In other regions, the leading countries are Kuwait in North Africa and the Middle East at 88.9, Bangladesh in South Asia at 81.5, Taiwan in East Asia at 86.2, Guam in Oceania at 89.3, Maldives in Southeast Asia at 86.7, Gabon in Central sub-Saharan Africa at 75.9, Ethiopia in Eastern sub-Saharan Africa at 78.6, Botswana in Southern sub-Saharan Africa at 78.1, and Cabo Verde in Western sub-Saharan Africa at 82.2.
Moreover, forecasts for the most likely future indicate that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates decreasing in every super-region. The burden DALY measured in counts, however, will rise in all places due to population aging and growth.
The report stated that while population growth will slow significantly by 2050 at the global level, it will remain high in some of the poorest regions of the world. The highest rates of population growth, exceeding 80%, are found in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, which require attention.
The shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs) to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will have the most pronounced effect in sub-Saharan Africa. In this region, DALYs from CMNNs are forecasted to drop from 60·1% in 2022 to 35.8% in 2050. In South Asia, this shift will be from 31.7% in 2022 to 15·5% in 2050.
In 2050, the top four global DALY causes are forecasted to be ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared to lower respiratory infections and neonatal disorders, along with stroke and ischaemic heart disease in 2022.
This demonstrates a critical shift in the overall disease burden, moving away from premature death and towards morbidity. Again, the shift will be largest in sub-Saharan Africa, with the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to years lived with disability (YLD) to rise from 20.1% in 2022 to 35.6% in 2050.
When assessing alternative future scenarios, the study found that the combined effects of Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risk scenarios, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and a safer environment showed an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% compared with the most likely scenario, with reduction across super-regions varying from 10·4% in high-income places to 23·9% in North Africa and the Middle East.
In the case of Improved Nutrition and Vaccination, the largest reduction, at 2%, is seen in sub-Saharan Africa, the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in North Africa and the Middle East at 23·2%, and the Safer Environment scenario at 5·2% in sub-Saharan Africa.
A decline in cardiovascular disease deaths has been the leading contributor to the expected increase in life expectancy. Declines in respiratory infections and tuberculosis deaths contributed the most to life expectancy gains in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while COVID-19 declines were the reason in the Caribbean.
At the global level, other leading contributors, in descending order, have been improvements in:
- Maternal and neonatal deaths
- Enteric infections
- Chronic respiratory diseases
- Neoplasms
- HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections
Overall, globally, age-standardized disease burden and life expectancy are projected to improve in the upcoming nearly three decades. During this time, the majority of the burden will continue shifting from CMNNs to NCDs. Still, the study emphasizes that this continued progress in reducing the CMNN disease burden depends on maintaining policy emphasis on and investment in the prevention and treatment of CMNN disease.
The study further noted that because of population growth and aging, deaths and disability-adjusted life years due to all causes will continue to increase. However, opportunities do exist to improve health outcomes considerably in the future through collective efforts to prevent exposure to well-established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.
Click here for a list of the top five companies offering innovative solutions for increased human longevity.
Companies that Could Benefit From This Trend
Now, let’s take a look at a couple of companies that can benefit from this forecasted life expectancy increase:
#1. Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
This global biopharmaceutical company focuses on neurological diseases and develops advanced therapies. Earlier this week, Biogen announced that it would be buying privately held Human Immunology Biosciences for up to $1.8 bln. The deal, which comprises an upfront $1.15 bln and up to $650 mln in potential payments if the company’s felzartamab achieves certain development milestones, is expected to close in the third quarter.
Biogen has a market cap of $31.75 bln, and its shares are currently trading at $220.72, down 15.73% year-to-date (YDT). It has an EPS (TTM) of 8.00 and a P/E (TTM) of 27.25. For the first quarter of 2024, the company reported $2.29 bln in revenue and $393.4 mln in net income. Its profit margin was up from 16% in 1Q23 to 17% in 1Q24.
The company’s Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi, reported $19 mln in sales for the quarter, up from $10 mln last year, as the number of patients on the therapy increased about 2.5 times since 2023-end. The drug, which slows the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, won approval in the U.S. in July.
#2. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
This company provides health insurance and medical care, and as people live longer, there is a greater demand for its services.
UnitedHealth has a market cap of $475.68 bln, and its shares are currently trading at $516.83, down 1.83% year-to-date (YDT). Its EPS (TTM) is 16.39, and its P/E (TTM) is 31.54. The dividend yield, meanwhile, is 1.46%.
For 1Q24, the company reported revenue of $99.8 bln, growing nearly $8 bln year-over-year. During the quarter, UnitedHealth also provided over $6 bln in advance funding and interest-free loans to support care providers. Meanwhile, a net loss of $1.53 per share was recorded due to cyberattacks.
CEO Andrew Witty confirmed during a hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance that the company paid a $22 million ransom to hackers who breached its subsidiary Change Healthcare, which caused nationwide havoc for health providers.
Conclusion
There is a clear global trend towards human longevity as medical treatments continue to become more accessible and advanced. Moreover, public awareness, technological and healthcare advancements, and government policies also support this growing trend. However, as this study noted, there is a shift towards non-communicable diseases and related risk factors like obesity and smoking, which will affect the next generation. As such, there is a need to be proactive and put increased focus and investment into these areas to ensure a healthy future.
Click here to learn how we can fight against aging.
