Based on data from Polymarket, Donald Trump is now leading Kamala Harris by 63 percent, an increase from earlier in the week. At this point, Trump is about 55.3 % likely to clinch the U.S. presidential seat, while Harris is 44.1%. This approximately 11% differential is the largest since Harris began participating in the race and is also partly due to increased wagers on Trump’s prospective win.
As the election is 25 days away, both candidates have intensified their campaigns. On 5th October, Trump was in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he suggested he might commute the sentence of Silk Road owner Ross Ulbricht. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who supports Trump, was present at the event, but neither Trump nor Musk said anything about the crypto space.
Although she has not taken any significant posts about cryptocurrencies, Harris has made recent statements about supporting technologies such as AI and digital assets. Polymarket has risen to popularity this election year as participants risk large amounts of money to stake on current events to reap actual-world results in cryptocurrencies.
Trump just set another all-time high in his odds against Harris.
There’s now a 54.4% chance he wins. pic.twitter.com/9bAj6n2h5l
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 10, 2024
Still, the Polymarket data does not always correspond to public polling, in which Harris is occasionally outpolling or still in contention for the national poll indicated by The Hill.
Trump’s Supporters Question Polymarket’s Predictive Validity and Accessibility Issues
A recent controversy by Jacob King from WhaleWire covered the topic of Polymeter’s validity of its predictions. On X, King opined that the platform’s data might not fully represent the U.S. electorate as most crypto bettors are conservative and politically inclined, which will tilt the odds in favor of Trump.
He also raised legitimate concerns, saying that the Polymarket is only available to US citizens, international or VPN people cannot participate, and, therefore, Polymarket cannot measure real Americans’ sentiments.
Many believe Trump will win simply because he’s slightly leading in bets on Polymarket, a crypto betting site.
However, this isn’t a reliable indicator of election outcomes—most crypto bettors tend to lean right. Additionally, the site is banned for U.S. citizens due to… pic.twitter.com/DYikUfSCAU
— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) October 11, 2024
Adding to these problems, Polymarket is still prohibited from serving users in the United States because of the existing legislation. The platform is a prediction market, also known as unregistered North American binary options trading, which is prohibited by the securities of the United States.
Earlier this month, another Federal Judge dismissed the CFTC ban on political event betting in the Kalshi prediction market. However, if granted, the CFTC will follow up on this judgment with an emergency motion, which may prove terrible for Kalshi.
